PDA

View Full Version : Relativity



Gazou
02-10-2009, 13:55 PM
I was prompted to research relativity. The literature is typically not of much help. Hague ("Leasehold Enfranchisement" 4th. edition updated by Anthony Radevsky and Damian Greenish) offers very little (the calculations therein as elsewhere ignore the issue of deriving "no Act" world prices); as does D. N. Clarke in "Leasehold enfranchisement: the new law", Francis Davey and Justin Bates in "Leasehold Disputes - a guide to Leasehold Valuation Tribunals".

Clarke makes the interesting observation that, "Privately negotiated lease extensions (outside the Act) would be reflected in "no Act" pricing" (page 252). It is also the case that the 1967 Act would have an impact on "real world" pricing and this may account in part for the rejection of the Savills graph (see below) as a reliable source.

Some research from 1998 by Leasehold Enfranchisement Limited's Timothy Curran based on Leasehold Valuation Tribunal decisions shows a disparity between term and relativity although typically leases with terms of more than 80 years see a relativity in the high 90s, those of more than 70 years the mid-90s, those of more than 60 years the low 90s, and the few of more than 50 years from mid-70s to mid-80s.

Anthony Radevsky has stated (March 2009) (see http://www.pla.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/75182/Anthony_Radevsky_paper.pdf ) at page 9: -


"Unfortunately, given that, in the open market, all long flat lessees have 1993 Act rights, and given that these must be ignored in carrying out a valuation under the Act, the evidential exercise is particularly difficult."

and at page 10: -


The problem of having to value while ignoring 1993 Act rights now runs throughout the valuation process in enfranchisement cases. The Lands Tribunal has developed a formula for determining the deferment rate based on financial evidence, having rejected the approach of looking at market evidence because it is tainted. In assessing marriage value, market transactions of shorter leases are similarly affected by 1993 Act rights and are regarded as unreliable as a result. This seems unfortunate, given the amount of market evidence of the sale of ground rent portfolios available. All that is required is a notional adjustment for statutory enfranchisement rights, which can sometimes be agreed by valuers.

Radevsky then also refers to the Lands Tribunal view in the Nailrile and Cadogan case: -


In Nailrile v Cadogan [2009] PLSCS 31, the Lands Tribunal had to consider relativity. The Tribunal’s conclusion was not entirely helpful for future cases. Graphs of relativity may be used, as may evidence of transactions (doing the best one can, given that they take place in the real world). There is no firm guidance as to the correct adjustment to make to real world transactions to reflect 1993 Act rights, nor as to which graph is preferable. The RICS has set up a working party. It has not yet reported, and seems unlikely to produce a single graph, given the different views of experts in the field. One may hope, however, that it will provide clear evidence as to how the various graphs and tables in circulation were compiled, so that their reliability can be taken into account.


A table and graph of relativities produced by Savills before the 1993 Act was used at one time (see for example from 2004 http://www.lease-advice.org/decisions/67pdf/286_Dir/286_Page1.htm where at paragraph 59 where is stated "FPDSavills' Table of Leasehold Values as a Proportion of Freehold is, of course, subject to adjustment for rights under the Act, for which Mr Roberts had made a reduction of 10% at 52.61 years. At 52 years the FPDSavills Table indicates a relativity of 81.7%, and a 10% reduction would have reduced this figure to 71.7% - slightly below Mr Roberts' relativity".)

The Savills 1992 data has, however, now been rejected as a reliable source such that in a 2009 LVT case (http://www.lease-advice.org/decisions/pdf/1827.pdf it was reported of a Cluttons' chartered surveyor (Mr. Hamilton), "In particular he said that the Savills 1992 graph was "hopeless". He considered that the Savills graph was based on the wrong methodology as it depended on random interviews".

In that same LVT case Mr. Hamilton stated: -


At 77 years unexpired he said that a wide range of relativity was shown, from 85% (Savills) to 96% (LEASE). Relying on "instinct and experience" he said that one reaches a "plausible range". Looking between 90% and 100% he fixed on about 95% which he said was supported by the Arrowdell decision, LEASE and the withdrawn Moss Kaye graph. He adopted Arrowdell at 95.4% as being the best he could do. He conceded in cross examination that his graph was largely conjectural and had not been followed by LVTs subsequent to Arrowdell.

Contrary views were expressed: -


Mr. Radevsky submitted that Cluttons graph, which Mr Hamilton relied on,
should not be accepted as it was based on settlements, was one sided and without details
of the settlement.

and for the other side Mr. Beckett (he of Beckett & Kay) stated: -


Mr Beckett went on to say that he did not think that the benefit of the Act was
very obvious when the Lease term unexpired was between 70 and 80 years, at which the
marriage value was relatively small. He considered 1% was realistically the lowest that
could be adopted to reflect the Act.

This 1% adjustment for the impact of the benefit of the 1993 Act was supported in the Decision (at paragraph 37): -


We have already decided in uplifting the leasehold sales evidence tofreehold on a real world relativity of 92.4% and both Mr Hamilton and Mr Beckett view the effect of the Act on the leasehold sale prices in this case being about 1%. Doing the best we can with the graphs and other evidence we determine a relativity of 92%.

Accordingly, I conclude: -

1. The relativity to apply to properly reflect the "no Act" world pricing is a matter of judgement and hence of negotiation and there is not much help available as to what may be appropriate in any particular case.

2. The application where unexpired lease terms are between 70 and 80 years appears to be only some 1 per cent. or so. Given the fairly wide disparity in relativity percentages as between different sources, the greater difference in relativity will arise from the choice of source rather than the extent of the adjustment to reflect the "no Act" world.

3. Where the unexpired lease terms are shorter, and especially where less than 60 years, the scope for negotiation is all the greater.

There is a lack of literature on this point (so far as my researches have unearthed) and if anyone can point to fresh that can contribute some better understanding, then I at least and no doubt others would be grateful.

James 2009
02-10-2009, 14:05 PM
It is likely, or at least possible, that I am shortly to be writing an approximately 15,000 word dissertation on the subject of relativity.

It is likely that the dissertation will cover the strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies, an attempt to identify any trends in how the LVT determines (by this I am more talking about how they determine not what they determine.) I may discuss possible ways forward and the relative benefits of getting clarity (for example coming up with a definitive graph and enacting it as law - and how to draw such a graph!) versus the rights of the freeholder to argue their case in what is ultimately a compulsory purchase situation.

I would be delighted for any tips, suggestions, theories, opinions, sources etc etc. Please pm me or post on this thread!

I will try to post the odd link or source as I find them.

Gazou
02-10-2009, 15:24 PM
James - that is very interesting: will you be publishing or otherwise making available your dissertation?

15,000 words is not a lot (as I recall from experience) once one has identified the issues, explained why research is needed, reviewed the current literature and formulated some proposals and made a conclusion.

It occurs to me the issue of relativity should be capable of being dealt with on a theoretical level and from that practical application ought not to be difficult. Allowing that there is some basis for the 80 year cut-off (which matches legal notions of perpetuity, so I understand), then it ought to be possible to construct a schedule showing diminution in value to expiry which would deviate from a linear progression only by specific factors like, for example, the attitude of the mortgage providers to remaining term and, at the very short end, the impact of rental market comparisons likely would be relevant, presumably. That theoretical progression might then represent a decent proxy for the purely conceptual "no Act" world. If it did, then the evidence of actual transactions and hence market values would provide measures of relativity as are and could be compared and contrasted to the theoretical diminution so that the extent of an appropriate adjustment could be given.

James 2009
02-10-2009, 16:25 PM
James - that is very interesting: will you be publishing or otherwise making available your dissertation?

15,000 words is not a lot (as I recall from experience) once one has identified the issues, explained why research is needed, reviewed the current literature and formulated some proposals and made a conclusion.

It occurs to me the issue of relativity should be capable of being dealt with on a theoretical level and from that practical application ought not to be difficult. Allowing that there is some basis for the 80 year cut-off (which matches legal notions of perpetuity, so I understand), then it ought to be possible to construct a schedule showing diminution in value to expiry which would deviate from a linear progression only by specific factors like, for example, the attitude of the mortgage providers to remaining term and, at the very short end, the impact of rental market comparisons likely would be relevant, presumably. That theoretical progression might then represent a decent proxy for the purely conceptual "no Act" world. If it did, then the evidence of actual transactions and hence market values would provide measures of relativity as are and could be compared and contrasted to the theoretical diminution so that the extent of an appropriate adjustment could be given.

No idea about making it public as yet, but I promise to post relevant sources that I come across (there are not many sources as far as I can see - a few little research papers, some cases, erm... that's about it!) [It is possibel that the subject will not turn out to be impossible, but I have signed up for this and paid the fees with no intention of completing the dissertation unless I can do this subject.]

With regards the last part of your post I will certainly consider in full. My gut feeling is that for low value cases common sense says it should be possible to use theory, but that higher value cases you must give the landlord (or indeed the tenant) the opportunity to fight their corner. And if you allow the latter then by introducing theory to the former you have two major problems -

you are denying 'proper justice' to freeholders of low value reversions (it would be similar to denying the right of a jury trial to alleged theives who are alleged to have stolen something worth less than £1,000)

who determines whether the value is higher or lower than the threshold!!!

quarterday
02-10-2009, 23:25 PM
The sooner we have a single line graph, the better. A lot more case will settle rather than go to LVTs and LTs.

theta
19-12-2011, 21:18 PM
Has there been any update here?
Also, I'm really surprised nobody has come up with a formula that results in values approximating the currently available graphs. I would imagine that with some combination of a square root of time, exponential or geometrical functions, a curve that is both smooth and roughly matches empirical evidence could be produced and then a lot of time and sanity would be saved as a result of not having to argue over 91% vs 90% for example.

bandontherun
20-12-2011, 05:19 AM
Since this thread got under way the credit crisis has worsened and in a 2011 case heard by the LVT determined that the evidence of the RICS working party on relativity presented in graph form all predate the credit crisis...and that the residential mortgage market has fundamentally changed. They observed that there is only one surveyor who has updated his graph since the credit crisis and that is Beckett who plots relativity as having plummeted in a No Act World especially at expirations sub 70 years. There are likely to be some landmark cases in the first half of 2012 and if you can wait that long I will post the salient details of the outcomes!

leaseholdanswers
20-12-2011, 09:52 AM
What is needed is a simple amendment to alter the 93 Act, that if I can remember that far back put us firmly in the world of an unintended consequence from statutory amendments in passage of the bill.