Property Investment in a Recession
Editorial:
The Private Rented Sector (PRS) and buy-to-let has become an important, if not the most important, sector of the UK housing market; certainly as far as tenants, sellers, letting and estate agents are concerned.
The young wait in rented accommodation until they can afford to buy, which suits their mobile lifestyles, the old downsize and some move into a rental retirement, owners rent out their homes when they move away, or when they can’t sell—there’s even talk of a shift to lifelong renting.
All this is a far cry from 20 years ago when hardly anyone rented. By contrast, at the turn of the century around 90% of households rented and in 1939 this figure was around 55 per cent.
The figure dropped to a mere 7 per cent in the 80s—the result of years of well meaning but misguided social legislation which had the effect of destroying the rental market.
In 1988 the Conservatives gave the market a shot-in-the-arm, introducing the Assured Shorthold Tenancy, which was followed by the ARLA initiative—the buy-to-let mortgage package.
Since then the PRS has grown steadily with the present share at 14%, still a way to go to reach the levels of countries in Europe and the US.
The Rugg Report and the subsequent government consultation paper, the precursor to more regulation in the sector, is largely positive about the PRS—not surprising given its importance.
In particular the report highlights high tenant satisfaction levels with private landlords vis-a-vis social housing.
The sector must be one of the few remaining cottage industries—one of the few remaining successful “Mom & Pop” businesses competing head-on and on equal footing with the big boys.
There are moves afoot to encourage institutional investment into the sector, but its success remains to be seen as the process does not economically scale-up well—small landlords have the advantage there.
Whilst prices doubled between 97 and 2008, rents have only increased by 15%, so paradoxically, despite the boom time criticism of BTL landlords, they are now helping local authorities cope with homelessness, taking on more and more HB tenants.
The danger is that this government’s proclivity for more and more legislation means that private landlords could be discouraged from investing in the sector in the future.
Property Investment in a Recession:
Despite recent events, and growing red-tape and regulation for landlords, it remains a truism that investing in property will continue to be an excellent place to put your money and to build-up your wealth over the long-term.
Governments now recongnise the importance of the Private Rental Sector (PRS) to the UK economy in helping to create a flexible mobile workforce and also in supporting social housing.
Big mistakes have been made by many investors, or should we say speculators, during the boom years, who believed, or were persuaded to believe, that high rates of growth in property values would continue almost indefinitely.
The banks and even the government colluded in this misconception—Gordon Brown’s oft repeated budget day claim to have produced “the end of Boom and Bust”!
It therefore seems somewhat ironic that he succeeded in producing the biggest bust the country has seen since 1929-33
There are now signs that the world economy is beginning to stabilize, and that a total economic collapse can now be averted, though it’s still early days and things could still get worse before they get better.
Very low interest rates and a concerted effort by the Bank of England using “quantitative easing” – effectively the printing of money—and by many other governments, appears to be having the desired effect, but the jury is still out on the end result.
However, it seems inevitable that there will be a high price to pay by us all, with unemployment continuing to rise for some time yet, low economic growth, and eventually (after the next election) savage cuts in government spending and probably significant tax rises.
This edition of the LandlordZONE Newsletter looks at property investment—investing in property in a recession—and explores some strategies which can help landlords invest in property safely and successfully for their long-term futures.
Tom Entwistle
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