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Article: Property as an investment vehicle needs to
be judged against other forms of investment, taking into
account all those factors which are of prime importance.
Although property is a special case in that most of us
need to invest in it either as a place to live or work, it is unlikely to be, and indeed should
not be, the only place to have your
money. These are some of the important factors to consider:
- My
Investment Philosophy - what is the
rationale behind my wealth creation strategy:
is it based on sound analytical business and ethical
principles, taking a long-term view, or am I to take
the gung-ho, devil-may-care get-rich-quick approach
where raking big risks and bending a few rules on
the way is acceptable?
- Return on
your Investment - this takes two forms: (1)
the income or yield the investment gives you
on a regular basis, and (2) the capital
appreciation or growth you get during the time
you hold the investment. The two of these combined
is known as the Total Return.
- Risk and Uncertainty -
investing your hard earned capital is a scary thing
at first. It's even scarier to borrow funds and
invest them as well, knowing that the risk involved
is only your own calculation of the probability
of getting a good return and your capital back
in tact. There's always the uncertainty of unknown and
unknowable events occurring which might ruin the
whole thing.
- Liquidity - the ease and certainty with
which you can withdraw your funds into cash.
A bank or building society account is relatively
risk free and liquid in that you can withdraw your
funds without notice. Stocks (equities) likewise are
relatively liquid in that you can telephone your
broker and instruct him to sell on any working day -
the sale will be completed within hours - but they
are not risk free. Property,
on the other hand is an illiquid investment: it can
take months or even years to dispose of a property
asset, making it difficult sometimes to time the
sale to your advantage.
- Time Involvement - How much of your time
is going to be taken up in managing your
investment? Unless your money is in cash
investments or a managed fund you are going to need
time to research and manage your
investments be they stocks or properties. This
is fine if you are a full-time investor, or you are
retired, but most of us do our investing whilst
managing a family and a full-time career.
- Your Age, Time Horizons, Wealth and
Attitude to Risk - these are important factors
which are personal to you. It's inevitable that when
you are young your investment funds are low, but
maybe you're prepared to take more risks. In your
middle years you may have more income and funds but
also more family responsibilities so only medium
risks are acceptable. In your later years, hopefully
having built-up your funds, you have more capital,
but you don't want to risk losing too much because
time is not on your side to build it up again. You
may, depending on your total wealth and requirements
at any stage in you life, take a portfolio
approach. Here, a smaller or larger portion of your
wealth is in higher risk, high potential return
investments and may be spread across many
investments.
- Taxation and your personal circumstances
- Are you a high rate taxpayer? Is your spouse
earning, or can you claim all of his/her personal
allowances against joint investment income? What are
your retirement plans and what about Inheritance
Tax? Would it be worthwhile investing through a
company? These are all quite complex questions and
will depend on your own personal circumstances and
future plans - you may need some professional
advice. It's always a good idea to plan your exit
strategy as soon as you can, preferable even before
you invest.
So you're looking for the perfect investment:
one with low risk, high income, high growth prospects,
high liquidity, minimum management time and low tax.
Sadly, it's very unlikely you'll find all of these in
one investment. You have to trade off these factors
against each other, and if you want to balance your
risks and returns you need to consider a
portfolio approach. See Figure 1 below.
This model shows the relationship between risk and
return. At zero risk you might get, for example a
cash deposit, a 4.5% return on your investment. But in
these types of investments there's no capital growth, so
4.5% is all you'll get and then you need to take
inflation and taxation into account. With inflation
running at say 2.5% to 3% a year, year on year, the value of your
capital is gradually being eroded. Take away your tax and with a cash investment you don't have much left, if
anything.
As you move to the higher risk investments your potential returns
increase.
All of these higher risk investments will demand more
management involvement that the simple safe cash
investment, but the more time you are prepared to put in
in terms of research, monitoring and management, the
more you are likely to get back in terms of income and
capital growth combined - your total return.
Some people are lucky enough to have the resources to start
investing young, but most are in their 30s, 40s or even 50s
before they have the time and the savings to start
investing seriously. An investment priority should
always be your own home and getting on the so called
housing ladder - no easy achievement for younger people
as they often have student and other loans to pay off in
their 20s.
Your own home is perhaps one of the best investments
you can make, giving you long-term security, capital
growth and some generous tax breaks. It also gives you a
growing equity stake (collateral) which you can use to
borrow against for increasing your asset base in the
future.
It's beginning to dawn on all of us that we can no
longer rely on the state or our company pensions to
adequately provide for our needs or desires in the
future. Younger people (generations X & Y) are likely to
have to work longer before they can draw their pensions,
which are likely to be far less generous than the Baby
Boomer generation had before them. It's going to be more
important than before to think through your savings and
investment strategy - to develop your knowledge on
investment and finance and to have clear goals and
targets.
Having decided on the need to save and invest, you
should devote some time to study: to understand the
principles and techniques and to understand yourself.
Are you willing to take some risks (can you sleep
nights?) or are you more conservative and risk averse?
Have you got time to be active, or would a passive
investment strategy suit you best, say investing in
managed funds? Would you be investing for income,
capital growth or a mixture of both? Are you looking at
cash savings, bonds, shares, property or other assets
like commodities or works of art?
There are three very important principles to bear in
mind about investments: (1) Compound Interest (2)
Cyclical Markets (3) Gearing.
(1) Compound interest - Albert Einstein famously
referred to the power of compound interest as the "8th Wonder of the
World". This highly underrated concept is the real power
behind investing. Take the figues in the table below
taken from Barclay Capital's Annual Equity Gilt Study.
This table shows annual real (inflation adjusted)
returns over a variety of periods for different types of
asset.
Annual Returns
| Period |
Shares% |
Gilts% |
Cash% |
| Last 3 years |
14.8 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
| Last 10 Years |
4.2 |
5.7 |
2.8 |
| Last 20 Years |
6.7 |
6.2 |
3.9 |
| Last 50 Years |
7 |
2.3 |
2 |
| 1900-2005 |
5.2 |
1.2 |
1 |
Source: Barclays Capital (2005)
These figures might seem paltry at
first sight, after all what's a 6.7%
gain in shares over 10 years? Well, what
it means is that if your investment can
equal the market average of gains over
20 years, then through compounding every
10 years you double your money. £100k
invested 20 years ago would now be worth
£400k. Now, with a bit more work and
careful investing your individual
investment my beat the market hands
down. Say you can get your portfolio to
achieve double that - an average 13.4% -
not at all an unrealistic figure - in
fact
Warren Buffett has achieved
something like 20% over 40 years. So
now, you double your money in 5.4 years,
which would mean in 20 years you turn
your £100k investment into something
like £1.6m in 22 years. That's the power
of compounding!
The DotCom
Crash knocked the stock market for 6 for a long time, but the
property market has soured over the last 10 years. In the last 3 years the stock
market has returned a respectable 14.8% and the commercial property market has a
total return of over 20%. However, comparing shares with property investments
can be confusing because property returns involve borrowed funds (gearing)
whereas the returns shown on the table above are not geared at all.
(2) Cyclical Markets - all asset markets are cyclical in nature,
meaning that they move up and own over time, but generally the underlying trend
is up. This is shown clearly in the table above where the stock market has
achieved an average 5.2% growth over 105 years, whereas at times growth has been
much higher or lower throughout this period.
One thing you can say with almost absolute certainty, markets always
regress to the mean - they return to their long-run trend line in the
long-term. This makes investing a whole lot safer if you know that so long as
you can hold on long enough, most assets will return to the average growth
trend, however low the market gets, unless there's a problem with your
particular investment.
(3) Gearing - is another way of saying borrowed funding. Let's say you
borrow £80k to buy a property using £20k of your own funds. This purchase would
be 80% geared. If your investment is valued at £120K after one year, your rental
income was £10k and your running expenses, including interest on the loan is
£7k, then your overall or total return would be 105% - £120k + £10k - £7k) = a
total return of £23k before inflation and tax. £23/£20 x 100 = 105% return.
That's because your return is calculated on your investment (£20K) not the total
purchase price of £100k. The interest on the loan is therefore an tax deductible
expense.
Remember, not all investments work out as well as these examples, you can
just as easily lose money investing as you can make it! A lot of factors are
involved in successful investing and these examples have been kept simple for
ease of understanding (hopefully) - if it were so easy there would be a lot more
millionaires.
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